THE ROLE OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI) IN ENHANCING TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN CHINA AND CENTRAL ASIA
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This research investigates the structural impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on trade dynamics between China and the five Central Asian republics (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan) over a 30-year longitudinal period (1993–2022). Utilizing an extended Gravity Model of International Trade and panel data techniques, specifically the Fixed Effects (FE) regression, the study assesses the relative importance of macroeconomic indicators, physical infrastructure, and logistics efficiency in overcoming geographical trade barriers. The empirical results demonstrate that while the BRI has significantly catalyzed regional trade, the isolated policy dummy variable is not statistically significant. Instead, the initiative's economic impact is strictly mediated through tangible, on-the-ground improvements in "hard" infrastructure (p = 0.004) and "soft" logistics performance (LPI, p = 0.033). Specifically, the model confirms that a single-unit improvement in a country's LPI score yields a 16.9% increase in bilateral trade volumes. The paper concludes that Central Asia's successful transition from a "land-locked" isolated region to a "land-linked" transcontinental hub is fundamentally dependent on continuous logistical modernization. Consequently, the study offers targeted policy recommendations, emphasizing the rapid digitization of cross-border customs procedures and the necessity for geographically targeted capital investments to overcome logistical disparities in mountainous republics.
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